Monday, April 6, 2009

Tips To Time The Stock Market

1) When doing stock pick, investors can take note of: Debt/equity ratio, return on equity ratio and price/earnings ratio. Generally, the higher the debt/equity ratio, the more costly the interest expense for the company. Investors should question whether the company is able to finance its debt. Return on equity ratio shows how much profit a company generates with the money shareholders have invested. Generally, the higher the return on equity ratio, the better it is. Consistently high return on equity over a long period of time - at least 15% for 10 consecutive years, show that the company has sustainable competitive advantages. The price/earnings ratio is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual profit earned by the firm per share. A low P/E ratio could mean that a stock is undervalued by the market (making it a possible buy) or that it has lost value. These ratios should not be studied in isolation; they should be compared to the industry average.How to do your stock pick?
2) The cash flow statement report on operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Positive cash flow is a sign that the company is healthy. One should not study the company's cash flow in isolation. To get the full financial picture of the company, you also need to study the balance sheet, income statement, and statement of owner's equity and do a comparison with the financial health of its competitors. Positive cash flow is a good sign, but negative cash flow is not always bad news. Sometimes a company may have negative cash flow due to investments in new equipment which is beneficial in the long run. Hence, there is no simple rule of thumb to say whether or not a company with strong cash flow is attractive.

Gurus know all about technical analysis.It is possible to time the market,maybe not exactly.There is always some "noise trading" eg. by speculators and institutions that trade for reasons unrelated to fundamental value.

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